Conducting Quantitative Cost And Schedule Risk Analysis Construction Essay

Conducting Quantitative Cost And Schedule Risk Analysis Construction Essay Every single project, in fact, will face unexpected conditions during execution phase. These conditions have different impacts, improving or reducing project performance. If those conditions, especially the bad ones risks, are not well identified up front, they may potentially destroy the overall project execution. Project Risk Management is a world class process in identifying, assessing and developing plans to reduce or eliminate the risk impacts. In term of cost and schedule, this process prevents significant cost overrun and schedule slip by applying adequate contingency. One of Project Risk Management methodologies is Quantitative Risk Analysis. This study covers the combination of two AACE International Recommended Practices, Range Estimating and Expected Value, in conducting Quantitative Risk Analysis to determine the adequate contingency needed using simple Microsoft Excel ® spreadsheet. Range Estimating method is used to identify and examine project uncertainties on each project schedule task durations and project cost components and Expected Value for project specific risks. Utilizing Monte Carlo simulation, the combination resulted on the S-Curve which was more skewed to the right. It reduces the project likelihood to achieve objectives with baseline cost and schedule is reduced and more contingency is needed to cover identified risks and uncertainties. The combination of both methods is very useful for comprehensive quantitative risk analysis. It will help project team to specify, identify, examine and encompass overall risks and uncertainties aspects which potentially impact to project outcomes and support management decision in determining adequate contingency requirement. Introduction Successful project management requires strong leadership and organizational capability, good decision making process, achievable planning, effective communication, coordination and effective project control and monitoring of project execution. Effective combination of those requirements will guide the entire project team to carry out outstanding performance in achieving project objectives. As Project Management definition above; cost, schedule, quality and safety are project key performance indicators or targets which determine successful project execution or not. During project execution phase, naturally, there are a lot of situations and conditions which were not predicted and potentially impact to project performances especially for cost and schedule. Those situations and conditions are defined as project risks and uncertainties. In this case, project uncertainties are not only impact to worse outcome but potentially to better project outcome. Realizing those potential risks and uncertainties, a project team requires a good project planning with comprehensive process to manage those risks and uncertainties. This process is defined as Project Risk Management. In the following sections through the conclusion, the Author will discuss his perspective about: General project risk management How to prepare, develop and perform quantitative cost and schedule risk analysis How to combine Range Estimating and Expected Value method in quantitative cost and schedule risk analysis How to determine appropriate contingency level based on quantitative cost and schedule risk analysis result Project Risk Management Project risk management should have a good planning in order to make alignment among project team members and project stakeholders. Project risk management plan includes work flow and processes, risk factor screening matrix, risk owner determination including role and responsibly, monitoring and reporting. Usually each Corporation Company has their own standard project risk management process. This standard will be guidance, fit for purpose, for each project for developing specific risk management plan. Risk Assessment In this step, project team will identify all possible risks and uncertainties that may impact the project execution. A risk management workshop is usually held to review and capture potential project risks and uncertainties by brainstorming session. Depend on project size and complexity, beside project team members, other support teams, such as Supply Change Management, Government and Public Relation, Law, etc; experienced project teams which have similar project scope and experts are encouraged to participate in this workshop to gain values, alignment and perspectives. Risk Analysis After all possible project risks and uncertainties were identified, and then project team analyzes and assesses each risk qualitatively or quantitatively. For qualitative approach, project team will assign potential impact and likelihood of occurrence of each respected risk using risk factor screening matrix, shown on Figure 2, agreed in risk management plan. The combination between risk impact and likelihood will determine risk criticality category or level. One of quantitative approach is conducting cost and schedule risk analysis by developing cost and schedule model, assessing and determining variability (uncertainties range) of each point estimate, define project specific risk events and then using Monte Carlo simulation to provide cumulative probabilistic output (more commonly known as S-Curve), shown on Figure 3. Monte Carlo simulation helps project team and stakeholders understand the range uncertainties and likelihood of achieving the planned outcomes. This simulation also can provide sensitivity (tornado) diagram which represent project risk drivers (priority) of respected point estimate. Risk Mitigation Since not all risks have high (critical) level impact to project outcome, project team need to prioritize all analyzed risks. Then project team need to develop risk action plan including specific mitigation plan, associated timing and resources and assign risk owner to all prioritized high level impact risks. Then this process continues to action plan implementation. From Process Map for Risk Management, showed on Figure 1, we can see that project risk management is not only event based process but it is a continuous process that will improve project understanding on risks and uncertainties that potentially impact to project outcome. Project risk management is most effective if it is monitored, controlled and adjusted if required. Quantitative Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis In project world, risks and uncertainties are translated as contingency. Contingency refers primarily to the amount of quantity of funds, time or other financial resources that is required to be allocated at and above the previously designated cost and schedule estimate amount to reduce the risk of overruns to an acceptable level for the financially. As mentioned above, quantitative cost and schedule risk analysis utilizes Monte Carlo simulation. Monte Carlo is one of technique and tool for risks and uncertainties analysis. This tool is used for generating probabilities through random sampling or iteration of all possible value of uncertainties and risks. The simulation result accuracy depends on number of iterations. The accuracy can be illustrated as follows: This method can support project team in quantifying project risks and uncertainties and determining appropriate contingency level. Using mathematical techniques and models, quantitative risk analysis numerically comes up with cumulative probabilistic result. This simulation result communicates potential risks and allows the management to select appropriate risk (contingency) level based on company approach. Without this valuable information, projects invested cost and schedule could be in corrected and causing underestimate which possibly came up with project overruns. This condition can possibly cause the project to require funding amendment to achieve project outcomes. There are several steps in conducting quantitative cost and schedule risk analysis: Developing cost and schedule models. Using Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) and Cost Breakdown Structure (CBS) as starting point are best practices in analysis model development. The cost and schedule models should represent all project scopes. Determine associated risks and uncertainties variables of each cost or schedule elements From developed models, we determine associated risks and uncertainties on each cost and schedules elements. AACE International has published two Recommended Practices (RP) in conducting risk analysis and contingency determination. They are using range estimating RP 41R-08 and expected value RP 44R-08. Assign Probability Distribution Function for each cost or schedule elements Since we will use Monte Carlo simulation, we need to define possible values from risks and uncertainties variables determined from previous step. In this case, we have to define probability distribution of each cost and schedule elements. Triangular distribution is the most common probability distribution type used for cost and schedule variables. Assign correlation factor between related or depended cost or schedule elements Since there are possibilities of dependency of some cost or schedule elements, project team need to assign correlation factor between two or more elements. Correlation factor is defined from -1.0 to +1.0, where 0 indicates no correlation. Without appropriate data, correlation factor is quite difficult to determine. Analyze the models using Monte Carlo simulation Monte Carlo simulation will generate cumulative probabilistic curve (S-Curve) which shows alternative cost or schedule probabilities based on risks and uncertainties variables inputted. Besides producing this curve, Monte Carlo also able to communicate cost and schedule elements which drive uncertain result. This information is provided by Tornado Diagram, shown on Figure 4. Analyze simulation result and generate report The S-Curve communicates how likely our current (base) cost and schedule estimates are to over-run or under-run and how much contingency is needed to justify level of confidence of project to finish on time and on budget. Each company has own target and willingness to accept risks. As Tornado Diagram provides prioritized risk drivers information, project team need to develop mitigation plan to reduce amount of risks and uncertainties impact and likelihood of occurrence of respected risk drivers. As mentioned previously, quantitative cost and schedule risk analysis should be conducted periodically. In line with mitigation plan progress, we expect that several risks and uncertainties impacts already have been reduced. By having continuous risk analysis and mitigation plan, it will maximize a projects chance to be delivered on time, on budget and safely. Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis for Appropriate Contingency Determination using Range Estimating and Expected Value Methods As described above, after we developed cost and schedule models, the next step is determining associated uncertainties and risks that as per experiences and data may influence and impact to project execution. AACE International recommends two methodologies in determining associated risks and uncertainties; they are Range Estimating and Expected Value. In Range Estimating method, the project team and other workshop participants will determine the ranges of each cost and schedule elements based on their knowledge, experiences of similar projects and any available data and/or benchmarking information. Utilizing triangular probability distribution function, the determined range will be iterated in Monte Carlo simulation to generate S-Curve. The Expected Value method is used to describe specific project risks that may impact project in specific condition or period of time. The Expected Value in its most basic form can be expressed as follows: If triangular probability distribution function is used for Range Estimating, Expected Value uses Bernoulli probability distribution function for representing the probability of risk occurring of project specific risk. In this section, the Author will illustrate the combination of both AACE International Recommended Practices by using simplified real project cost and schedule estimate data for developing the model, ranges and risk drivers with modified values and also Microsoft Excel with Crystal Ball as Monte Carlo simulation software. 4.1. Quantitative Schedule Risk Analysis with Range Estimating and Expected Value Method The first step in performing quantitative schedule risk analysis is developing schedule model. The best approach in developing this model is by utilizing the Critical Path Method (CPM) schedule. By selecting critical path and near critical path tasks, we will be able to develop the model. The important thing in developing the schedule model, it should represent the entire project scopes. Developing a schedule model network diagram can help all workshop participants in understanding the model and guide the discussion in determining the uncertainties range and project specific risk of each schedule task. Since we use Microsoft Excel spreadsheet in this risk analysis, manual calculations and formulas are used to describe relationship between tasks and determine start and finish date of each task. To prevent logic change during risk analysis discussion, the schedule model should be understood and agreed ahead by all parties who involve in risk analysis. Once schedule model is developed, the next step is determining the uncertainties range of each schedule task. In AACEI RP 41R-08, this method is called as Range Estimating. The risk workshop participants will discuss and determine appropriate uncertainties range, shown in Table 2 with yellow highlights, of each task based on their experiences, judgment and available data. Remember to capture all related discussion during determining the range as workshop evidences and valuable information in the future. As described above, the next step, we have to determine Probability Distribution Function (PDF) for all task ranges and specific risks. In this project, we use triangular PDF for all task ranges, as shown in Figure 6. Once all schedule task ranges are done, then we need to check and determine additional project specific risks which potentially impact to specific project schedule task. In this project example, there are two project specific risks identified and all of them relate with procurement process. In Indonesia, all Oil and Gas Companies have to comply with Indonesian Executive Agency for Upstream Oil and Gas Industry (BPMIGAS) regulation in procurement process (PTK-007). Both project specific risks are retender on material (equipment) and contract procurement processes. Based on data from Supply Change Management (SCM) team, retender on material procurement will add 30 days with likelihood of occurrence is 15% and retender on EPCI contract procurement will add 60 days with likelihood of occurrence is 20%. We use Yes-No PDF for both specific risks represent likelihood of occurrence, as shown in Figure 7. Then material procurement retender risk is applied and tied-in to Major Equipment Bulk Procurement Process ID 4 and also EPCI contract procurement retender risk to EPCI Contract Procurement Process ID 6, as shown in Table 3 the same PDF is applied for Retender Material. After assigned correlation factors, we run the Monte Carlo simulation and come up with S-Curve as shown in Figure 8. From this figure, we can see the likelihood of achieving original project completion date (baseline schedule) is only around 25% of confidence level. If we compare this simulation result with simulation result without project specific risks, as shown in Figure 9, we can see there is approximately 14 days difference on P50 confidence level. It means that project specific risks impact to overall project duration, even though in this project example, the contribution is not significant. It is only 2% of total baseline duration. Using the S-Curve, the decision makers will be able to determine the contingency needed to achieve an expected confidence level. Each company typically has an expectation setting on level of acceptable risk tolerance or confidence level. The contingency level is determined by the difference between the acceptable confidence level and project baseline. If the Mean, represent as Expected Value, is selected as the acceptable level then the project schedule contingency is 72 days. Another advantage in Monte Carlo simulation is identification of high priority risks and uncertainties which drive uncertain simulation result. This information can be illustrated by Tornado Diagram, as shown in Figure 10. In this project example, uncertainties range of schedule tasks drive the project finish date. Since project specific risks have no significant impact to finish date, both risks are not considered as high priority project risk drivers. From Tornado Chart above, project team need to develop mitigation plan to reduce amount of uncertainties impact of respected risk drivers. 4.2. Quantitative Cost Risk Analysis with Range Estimating and Expected Value Method Similar like schedule risk analysis, the cost model can be developed from high level Cost Breakdown Structure. Each cost element is formed by the combination of unit amount (scope) and unit rate. The next step, we will determine uncertainties range of each cost element scope and rate and the result is as shown in Table 4. The triangular PDF is also applied to all cost elements. As we know that schedule slip or delay will contribute in increasing the cost. Several cost elements may depend on specific schedule tasks duration. It means that each cost element risks depends not only its components (scope and rate) but also from on respected duration uncertainties. The cost components uncertainties already determined by range estimating method above. Since specific schedule duration uncertainties potentially impact to specific cost elements, they can be utilized as project specific risks for cost risk analysis. From this project example, there are two schedule task durations are identified and impact to several cost elements as shown in Table 5. Both project specific risks information can be gathered from Schedule Risk Analysis simulation result. The Total Site Installation Duration is defined as all activity durations from Field Fabrication and Assembly until Commissioning Start Up. As Monte Carlo simulation, this project specific risk comes up with S-Curve as shown in Figure 11. From S-Curve above, we can calculate the difference between baseline duration and major percentiles, as shown in Table 6 yellow highlighted and use Triangular PDF for simulation later, as shown in Figure 12. The same method is applied for 2nd specific risk by using Figure 8, the total project duration. After assigned correlation factors, we run the Monte Carlo simulation and come up with S-Curve as shown in Figure 13. From this figure, we can see the likelihood of achieving original project completion date (baseline schedule) is only around 15% of confidence level. If we compare this simulation result with simulation result without project specific risks, as shown in Figure 14, we can see there is approximately US$ 1.2 million difference on P50 confidence level. It means that schedule duration uncertainties (specific risks) allocate significant impact to total project cost, with additional contingency 8%. From the Tornado Diagram, as shown in Figure 15, we can see that schedule duration uncertainties become the main risk driver of total project cost uncertainties, beside several cost components. This condition is concurred with above statement that schedule slip will contribute in increasing the cost. Conclusion The above simulation results show the implication of the combination between Range Estimating and Expected Value methods in conducting quantitative cost and schedule risk analysis. The combination of both methods will help project team to specify, identify, examine and encompass overall risks and uncertainties aspects which potentially impact to project outcomes and support management decision in determining adequate contingency requirement. The quality of quantitative risk analysis result depends on workshop participants knowledge, experiences of similar projects, judgments and any available data and/or benchmarking information. Poor quality analysis leads to inaccurate decision making. Realizing this condition, the quantitative risk analysis should be conducted periodically to ensure the validity of all risks information and effectiveness of mitigation plan. Effective Risk Management plan will improve the likelihood the project in achieving its goals.

Illegally Downloading Music Essay

Music, a very popular trend in our day. There are all types of music; hip hop, rock, rap, pop, etc. With the growing amounts of songs and artists, people want to listen to them more. Therefore they need some source in order to listen to these songs. If downloading music off the internet is considered â€Å"illegal†, then why do people have music sharing websites? There are about 500 online services located in 40 countries. With all these websites people should be allowed to download music and let it not be considered stealing. For example: If I walk into a record store, steal a CD and then walk out it is no longer there and no one can have it, it is gone. But on the other hand if I download a song off a music sharing website, many other people can do the same and it is also free! I’ll admit that artists sell their music on programs such as â€Å"ITunes† where people pay about a dollar or more for a song, which can help benefit their songs, but who wants to pay that much money for songs? When you download music for free they will get recognized a lot quicker because the community will start sharing with many others and considering that it is free it may be more popular. People over 30 years of age may consider it stealing because at their age, there were no music sharing sites like â€Å"Limewire, or Napster†. Instead they would buy CD’s then either copy them on to cassettes or share them with friends. There are also sites like â€Å"MySpace† where it is okay to demand free music on a playlist, but it’s not okay on custom playlists just because the contracts aren’t right. Eventually downloading music may not be considered stealing, but until this is ethically wrong, downloading music should not be considered stealing.

An Analysis of Kate Chopins The Story of an Hour

Kate Chopins The Story of an Hour is a perfect example of literature that glorifies the commonplace event: the story depicts a gigantic event in the life of its protagonist by using a minimalist economy of means. The opening sentence of The Story of an Hour carefully sets up the conclusion of the story. Chopin is working with such limited space here that it resembles more the crafting of a poem than a fictional narrative. We are told that Mrs Mallard was afflicted with heart trouble so great care was taken to break to her as gently as possible the news of her husbands death. Of course Chopin is performing a number of different functions with this opening besides the mere set-up for her final plot twist: we will note the ambiguity in the euphemism heart trouble which may indicate that Louise Mallards affliction is possibly related not merely to her circulatory system, but her emotional life. The use of the word break in such close proximity within the same sentence (when the next sent ence immediately refers to broken sentences) summons to the readers ear the echo of the phrase heartbreak. To a certain extent, The Story of an Hour is a tale of love and loss, although it performs complicated reversals of the readers expectations about what such a story might entail. In fact, these hints of heartbreak at the outset suggest the deeper emotional currents of the story which Chopin, in carefully depicting the stifling milieu of the late 19th centuryShow MoreRelatedAn Analysis of Kate Chopins The Story of an Hour850 Words   |  4 PagesThe short story â€Å"The Story of an Hour† by Kate Chopin is a famous piece of literature widely recognized throughout the entire literary world. It is about how a wife, Louise Mallard, hears the news of her husbands horrible train accident which ultimately led to his untimely death. 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The story than explains her reaction upon finding out about his death. At the end of the story, her husbandRead MoreWhether It Was a Joy That Killed Louise: Analysis of Kate Chopin’s the Story of an Hour937 Words   |  4 Pageslose his or her loved one. And if someone told me a story about a woman who bewailed her deceased husband and then died of overwhelming happiness after she saw him safe and sound, I would definitely believe in reliability of this story. Especially, if I was told that the women had heart problems. It is known that not only a sorrow but and an excessive joy can cause a fatal heart attack. However, after reading Kate Chopin’s The Story of an Hour, I felt puzzled about doctors’ conclusion that Mrs. MallardRead MoreThe Life and Works of Kate Chopin1569 Words   |  6 PagesKate wrote two novels and hundreds of short stories. Few of her stories were â€Å"Story of an Hour† and â€Å"The Awakening†. One of Kate Chopins most famous stories is the Story of an Hour. 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They were considered selfish if they thought otherwise, and their job was to make their husbands happy at all times. This was the century of a turning point for women, in which they had desires test their limits imposed on their sex. Critics of her stories list the analysisRead MoreEssay on Structural Technique in The Story of an Hour by Kate Chopin861 Words   |  4 Pagesshort story. Kate Chopin uses structural techni ques to enhance â€Å"The Story of an Hour† from beginning to end. She follows formal structure to a certain degree, but occasionally strays to actual structure. Upon analysis of the organization of Chopin’s story, the reader understands the powerful meaning that is expressed in such a short piece. Initially, a short story begins with an exposition. This is the laying out of important background information, characters, and setting. Chopin’s story is only

Biography of Bonnie and Clyde, Depression-Era Outlaws

Bonnie Parker (October 1, 1910–May 23, 1934) and Clyde Barrow (March 24, 1909–May 23, 1934) went on a notorious two-year crime spree during the Great Depression, a time when the American public was hostile toward government. Bonnie and Clyde used that emotion to their advantage: Assuming an image closer to Robin Hoods than to the mass murderers they were, they captured the nations imagination as a romantic young couple on the open road. Fast Facts: Bonnie and Clyde Known For: A notorious two-year crime spreeAlso Known As: Bonnie Parker, Clyde Barrow, the Barrow GangBorn: Bonnie, Oct. 1, 1910 in Rowena, Texas; Clyde, March 24, 1909 in Telico, TexasParents: Bonnie, Henry and Emma Parker; Clyde, Henry and Cummie BarrowDied: May 23, 1934 near Gibsland, Louisiana Early Life: Bonnie Bonnie Parker was born October 1, 1910, in Rowena, Texas, the second of three children to Henry and Emma Parker. The family lived comfortably off her fathers job as a bricklayer, but when he died unexpectedly in 1914, her mother moved the family in with her mother in Cement City, Texas (now part of Dallas). Bonnie Parker was beautiful and was 4-foot-11, 90 pounds. She did well in school and loved writing poetry. Bonnie dropped out of school at 16 and married Roy Thornton. The marriage wasnt happy, and Thornton began spending more time away from home. In 1929, he was charged with robbery and sentenced to five years in prison. They never divorced. While Roy was away, Bonnie worked as a waitress but was unemployed as the Great Depression got started toward the end of 1929. Early Life: Clyde Clyde Barrow was born March 24, 1909, in Telico, Texas, the sixth of eight children to Henry and Cummie Barrow. Clydes parents were tenant farmers, often not making enough money to feed their children. When he was 12, his parents gave up tenant farming and moved to West Dallas, where his father opened a gas station. West Dallas was a rough neighborhood, and Clyde fit right in. He and his older brother Marvin Ivan Buck Barrow were often in trouble with the law for stealing things such as turkeys and cars. Clyde was small, standing 5-foot-7 and weighing 130 pounds. He had two serious girlfriends before he met Bonnie, but he never married. Bonnie and Clyde Meet In January 1930, Bonnie and Clyde met at a mutual friends house. The attraction was instantaneous. A few weeks later, Clyde was sentenced to two years in prison for previous crimes. Bonnie was devastated. On March 11, 1930, Clyde escaped from jail using a gun Bonnie had smuggled in. A week later he was recaptured and sentenced to 14 years in the brutal Eastham Prison Farm near Weldon, Texas. Clyde arrived at Eastham on April 21. Life there was unbearable and he became desperate to get out. Hoping a physical incapacity would earn him a transfer, he asked a fellow prisoner to chop off two of his toes with an ax. It proved unnecessary; he was paroled a week later, on Feb. 2, 1932. He swore he would rather die than return there. Bonnie Becomes a Criminal Leaving prison during the Depression, with jobs scarce, made living in society difficult. Plus, Clyde had little experience holding a job. As soon as his foot healed, he was back to robbing. Bonnie went with him on one of these robberies. The plan was for the Barrow Gang—which included, at different times, Ray Hamilton, W.D. Jones, Buck Barrow, Blanche Barrow, and Henry Methvin, in addition to Bonnie and Clyde—to rob a hardware store. Although she stayed in the car during the robbery, Bonnie was captured and put in the Kaufman, Texas, jail, but she was released for lack of evidence. While Bonnie was in jail, Clyde and Hamilton staged another robbery in April 1932. It was supposed to be easy, but something went wrong and the general stores owner John Bucher was shot and killed. Bonnie now faced a decision: stay with Clyde for life on the run or leave him and start fresh. Bonnie knew Clyde had vowed never to return to prison and that staying with him meant death for both, very soon. Despite this knowledge, Bonnie decided not to leave Clyde, remaining loyal to the end. On the Lam For the next two years, Bonnie and Clyde robbed across Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Louisiana, and  New Mexico. They stayed close to a state border because police then couldnt cross  state boundaries  to follow a criminal. Clyde changed cars frequently by stealing one and changed license plates  more frequently. He studied maps and had an uncanny knowledge of back roads. Police didnt know then that  Bonnie and Clyde  made frequent trips to Dallas to see their families. Bonnie was close to her mother, whom she insisted on seeing every couple of months. Clyde frequently visited his mother and favorite sister Nell, which nearly got them killed several times in police ambushes. Buck and Blanche They had been on the run for a year when Clydes brother Buck was released from prison in March 1933.  Law enforcement wanted them for murder, bank robbery, auto theft, and robbing dozens of grocery stores and gas stations, but they decided to rent an apartment in Joplin, Missouri, for a reunion with Buck and his wife Blanche. After two weeks of chatting, cooking, and playing cards, Clyde noticed two police cars pull up on April 13, 1933. A shootout ensued. After killing one policeman and wounding another, Bonnie, Clyde, Buck, and Jones got to their car and sped away. They picked up Blanche, who had escaped the shooting, nearby. Although they got away, police found a trove of information in the apartment, including rolls of film with the now-famous images of Bonnie and Clyde in various poses holding guns and Bonnies poem  The Story of Suicide Sal,  one of two she wrote on the run (the other was The Story of Bonnie and Clyde). The pictures, the poem, and the getaway increased their fame. They evaded trouble until June 1933, when they had an accident near Wellington, Texas. Clyde realized too late that the bridge ahead had been closed for repairs. He swerved and the car went down an embankment. Clyde and Jones got out safely, but Bonnies leg was burned badly by leaking battery acid, and she never walked properly again. Despite her injuries, they couldnt stop for medical care. Clyde nursed Bonnie with help from Blanche and Billie, Bonnies sister. Ambushes A month later, Bonnie, Clyde, Buck, Blanche, and Jones checked into two cabins at the Red Crown Tavern near Platte City, Missouri. On July 19, 1933, police, tipped by locals, surrounded the cabins. At 11 p.m., a policeman banged on a cabin door. Blanche replied, Just a minute. Let me get dressed, giving Clyde time to pick up his Browning Automatic Rifle and start shooting. While the others took cover, Buck kept shooting and was shot in the head. Clyde gathered everyone, including Buck, for a charge to the garage. As they roared off, police shot out two tires and shattered a window, the shards severely damaging one of Blanches eyes. Clyde drove through the night and the next day, stopping only to change bandages and tires. At Dexter, Iowa, they stopped for rest at the Dexfield Park recreation area, not knowing police had been alerted to their presence by a local farmer who had found bloodied bandages. More than 100 policemen, National Guardsmen, vigilantes, and local farmers surrounded them. On the morning of July 24, Bonnie saw the policemen closing in and screamed. Clyde and Jones picked up their guns and start shooting. Buck, unable to move, kept shooting and was hit several times, Blanche by his side. Clyde hopped into a car but was shot in the arm and crashed into a tree. He, Bonnie, and Jones ran and then swam across a river. Clyde stole another car and drove them away. Buck died a few days later, and Blanche was captured. Clyde had been shot four times and Bonnie had been hit by numerous buckshot pellets. Jones, who was shot in the head, took off and never returned. Last Days After several months of recuperating, Bonnie and Clyde were back out robbing. They had to be careful, realizing that locals might recognize them and turn them in, as had happened in Missouri and Iowa. To avoid scrutiny, they slept in their car at night and drove during the day. In November 1933, Jones was captured and told his story to the police, who learned of the close ties between Bonnie and Clyde and their families. This gave them an idea: By watching their families, police could establish an ambush when Bonnie and Clyde tried to contact them. When an ambush attempt that month endangered their mothers, Clyde became furious. He wanted to retaliate against the lawmen, but his family convinced him this wouldnt be smart. Rather than seek revenge on those who had threatened his family, Clyde focused on the Eastham Prison Farm. In January 1934, they helped Clydes old friend Raymond Hamilton break out. A guard was killed and several prisoners hopped into the getaway car. One of those prisoners was Henry Methvin. After the other convicts went their own ways—including Hamilton, who left after a dispute with Clyde—Methvin stayed on. The crime spree continued, including the brutal murder of two motorcycle cops, but the end was near. Methvin and his family were to play a role in Bonnie and Clydes demise. Final Shootout and Death Realizing how tied to family Bonnie and Clyde were, the police guessed that Bonnie, Clyde, and Henry were on their way to visit Iverson Methvin, Henry Methvins father, in May 1934. When police learned that Henry Methvin had become separated from Bonnie and Clyde on the evening of May 19, they realized this was their chance to set up an ambush. Police assumed they would search for Henry at his fathers farm, so they planned an ambush along the road the outlaws were expected to take. The six lawmen planning the ambush confiscated Iverson Methvins truck and removed one of its tires, then placed it along Highway 154 between Sailes and Gibsland, Louisiana. If Clyde saw Iversons vehicle on the roadside, they figured, he would slow down and investigate. At 9:15 a.m. on May 23, 1934, Clyde spotted Iversons truck. As he slowed down, the officers opened fire. Bonnie and Clyde had little time to react. The police shot  more than 130 bullets at the couple, killing them quickly. When the shooting ended, policemen found that the back of Clydes head had exploded and part of Bonnies right hand had been shot off. Their bodies were taken to Dallas and put on public view. Crowds gathered for a glimpse of the famous pair. Although Bonnie had requested that she be buried with Clyde, they were buried in different cemeteries, according to their families wishes. Legacy Although they created a romantic image—two young lovers running from the big, bad cops, Clydes driving skills, Bonnies poetry, and her beauty—it was tarnished by the truth. Though they often captured police who caught up to them and let them off unharmed hours and hundreds of miles later, they killed 13 people, some bystanders slain during bungled robberies. Because they never got away with much money when they robbed banks, Bonnie and Clyde were desperate criminals, sleeping in the most recently stolen car and constantly fearing death in a hail of bullets from a police ambush. Still, they were the stuff of legend. Sources The Real Bonnie and Clyde: 9 Facts on the Outlawed Duo. Biography.com.10 Things You May Not Know About Bonnie and Clyde. History.com.