Universal Neurosis Essays - Freudian Psychology, Sigmund Freud

Universal Neurosis SIGMUND FREUD and UNIVERSAL NEUROSIS Sigmund Freud defined the goal of psychoanalysis to be to replace unconscious with conscious awareness, where the ?id was ego shall be,' and through this an individual would achieve self-control and reasonable satisfaction of instincts. His fundamental ideas include psychic determinism, the power and influence of the unconscious, as opposed to the pre-conscious mind, the tripartite division into id, ego and super-ego, and of course the ideas of universal illusion and universal effects of the Oedipal Complex. The examination of the Oedipal Complex is the most essential to the understanding of Freud's theories since he claimed that due to the resistance, repression, and transference of early sexual energies the world had developed a universal complex which did not allow for the healthy development of individual's but lead instead to the neurosis and mass illusion of religion. For his perceivably vicious attacks on religion and his logical and yet totally undermining examination of reli gion and other vital social issues, Freud has been slandered and his theories criticised simply because of the away he addressed these painful issues. Through the systematic development of the theories of psychoanalysis, all stemming from one another and all tied together into a universal Oedipal Complex and religious illusion, the ideas of the tripartite human psyche and wish-fulfilment that Freud developed came under fire from critics for their controversial messages and analysis. Briefly stated, the Oedipus Complex is the preservation in the adult individual of the perceptions, strategies and scars of a conflict the individual underwent during his/her pre-school years. According to Freud, these perceptions, etc, later colour and shape the individual's future experiences. This psychological crisis results when a young child's sexual desire for the parent of the opposite sex collides with the competition, rivalry and overwhelming power of the parent of the same sex. According to Freudian theory, the ghosts of this Oedipal crisis haunt us our entire lives. Psychopathology, slips of the tongue, dreams, and religious experience all were understood to be functions whose origins and energy resulted from this repressed material. In his later work, Freud interpreted the reports of his clients (reports offered under hypnosis, under verbal encouragement and suggestion, and finally, in the later work, reports given through free-associations) as revealing a universal Oedi pal drama. Freud found what he took to be evidence for the universal existence of the Oedipus Complex in the testimony of patients, in his analysis of the repressed in dreams, in slips, wit, and the transference phenomenon, as well as in art, philosophy and religion. As the child develops, he/she identifies with the parent of the same sex and renounces incestual desire. This renunciation is achieved and strengthened by the formation of the super-ego, a section of the child's ego identified with the childhood image of the parents (the parental Imago) perceived in consciousness as conscience and as the ego ideal. The ego ideal is the self's conception of how he/she wishes to be and is a substitute for the lost narcissism in childhood when ?I' was my own ideal. When projected onto or into the world, the Imago (a word used by Freud to describe unconscious object-representations) is taken by the experience to be a veridical perception of a divine being. Throughout life, these experiences of this childhood conflict are alive and present in the unconscious of the individual. This childish, magically thinking, ever desiring, instinctually driven self is described topographically by Freud in his tripartite division of the person as the ?id' (Latin for ?it '). That part of the individual responsible for maintaining congress and connection with reality and mediating between the id and reality is the ?ego.' That part of the ego, largely and usually unconscious, which bears and enforces the ego ideal, is the ?super-ego.' An activity is ego-syntonic just in case it strengthens the ego in its function of mediating between the demands of reality, basic instinctual drives (of appetite, aggression, and sexuality), and conscience. As mediator, the ego needs to make adequate contact with both the external and internal demands involved. Thus, one of its main tasks is ?reality testing' - making an accurate determination of the limits imposed on the organism by the external world including one's

Sample of Words Essay on Social Studies Career Goals

Sample of Words Essay on Social Studies Career GoalsWhen a student is trying to figure out how to structure a sample of words essay on social studies career goals, it is a good idea to organize the material in a logical way. There are many different formats and directions that students can take to organize the materials for their sample of words essay on social studies career goals.One of the first things a student should do is to write down what they want to accomplish from writing this essay. From here, they should write down the different areas that they want to cover with their essay. This helps them identify what areas of writing they will need help with and that they will be able to handle on their own.Students should start by writing their goals for this essay on topics related to the topic of their academic essays. This will allow them to focus on areas of their goal writing where they can learn more about this subject. This will also give them something to focus on as they b egin to write the first drafts of their sample of words essay on social studies career goals.Next, students should write their reasons for wanting to study a specific career. They should choose careers that interest them most. This can be a broad topic like world history or a more specific topic like international politics. They can use their interests to create the best sample of words essay on social studies career goals that they can.Students should then write a description of the different kinds of careers that they want to work on. They should write different types of careers and choose topics that are related to those careers. By listing the different kinds of careers that they want to study in this way, they will be able to make a list of the various careers that they have listed.Finally, they should include a few paragraphs that describe their experiences in the field that they want to write about in their sample of words essay on social studies career goals. These paragraph s should include information about the different experiences that they have had in the career. It should also include information about the challenges that they faced and the strategies that they used to overcome these challenges.Students should also make sure that they use their key skills in their essay. These skills can be anything from language skills to critical thinking skills. By having these skills as a part of the samples of words essay on social studies career goals, students will be able to use those skills to help them organize the material for their writing assignments.Making sure that the sample of words essay on social studies career goals contains the skills that a student needs to succeed in college is an important aspect of making sure that the essay is the most effective. By making sure that students can use the key skills that they learned in high school to help them learn about careers and about other subjects, students will be able to get the most out of their research.

Battle of New Market in the Civil War

Battle of New Market in the Civil War The Battle of New Market occurred on May 15, 1864, during the American Civil War (1861-1865). In March 1864, President Abraham Lincoln elevated Major General Ulysses S. Grant to lieutenant general and gave him command of all Union armies. Having previously directed forces in the Western Theater, he decided to give operational command of the armies in this region to Major General William T. Sherman and moved his headquarters east to travel with Major General George G. Meades Army of the Potomac. Grants Plan Unlike the Union campaigns of the preceding years which sought to capture the Confederate capital of Richmond, Grants primary goal was the destruction of General Robert E. Lees Army of Northern Virginia. Recognizing that the loss of Lees army would lead to the inevitable fall of Richmond as well as would likely sound the death knell of the rebellion, Grant intended to strike the Army of Northern Virginia from three directions. This was made possible by the Unions superiority in manpower and equipment. First, Meade was to cross the Rapidan River east of Lees position at Orange Court House, before swinging west to engage the enemy. With this thrust, Grant sought to bring Lee to battle outside of the fortifications the Confederates had constructed at Mine Run. To the south, Major General Benjamin Butlers Army of the James was to advance up the Peninsula from Fort Monroe and threaten Richmond, while to the west Major General Franz Sigel laid waste to the resources of the Shenandoah Valley. Ideally, these secondary thrusts would draw troops away from Lee, weakening his army as Grant and Meade attacked. Sigel in the Valley Born in Germany, Sigel had graduated from the Karlsruhe Military Academy in 1843, and five years later served Baden during the Revolution of 1848. With the collapse of the revolutionary movements in Germany, he had fled first to Great Britain and then to New York City. Settling in St. Louis, Sigel became active in local politics and was an ardent abolitionist. With the start of the Civil War, he received a commission more based on his political views and influence with the German immigrant community than his martial ability.   After seeing fighting in the west at Wilsons Creek and Pea Ridge in 1862, Sigel was ordered east and held commands in the Shenandoah Valley and the Army of the Potomac. Through poor performance and an unlikable disposition, Sigel was relegated to unimportant posts in 1863. The following March, due to his political influence, he obtained command of the  Department of West Virginia. Tasked with eliminating the Shenandoah Valleys ability to provide Lee with food and supplies, he moved out with around 9,000 men from Winchester in early May. Confederate Response As Sigel and his army moved southwest through the valley towards their goal of Staunton, Union troops initially encountered little resistance. To meet the Union threat, Major General John C. Breckinridge hastily assembled what Confederate troops were available in the area. These were organized into two infantry brigades, led by Brigadier Generals  John C. Echols and Gabriel C. Wharton, and a cavalry brigade led by Brigadier General John D. Imboden. Additional units were added to Breckinridges small army including the 257-man Corps of Cadets from the Virginia Military Institute. Armies Commanders: Union Major General Franz Sigel6,275 men Confederate Major General John C. Breckinridge4,090 men Making Contact Though they had marched 80 miles in four days to join his army, Breckinridge hoped to avoid using the cadets as some were as young as 15. Advancing towards each other, Sigel and Breckinridges forces met near New Market on May 15, 1864. Deploying on a ridge north of the town, Sigel pushed skirmishers forward. Spotting the Union troops, Breckinridge opted to take the offensive. Forming his men south of New Market, he placed the VMI cadets in his reserve line. Moving out around 11:00 AM, the Confederates advanced through thick mud and cleared New Market within ninety minutes. The Confederates Attack Pressing on, Breckinridges men encountered a line of Union skirmishers just north of the town. Sending Brigadier General John Imbodens cavalry around to the right, Breckinridges infantry attacked while the horsemen fired on the Union flank. Overwhelmed, the skirmishers fell back to the main Union line. Continuing their attack, the Confederates advanced upon Sigels troops. As the two lines neared, they began exchanging fire. Taking advantage of their superior position, the Union forces began to thin out the Confederate line. With Breckinridges line starting to waver, Sigel decided to attack. With a gap opening in his line, Breckinridge, with great reluctance, ordered the VMI cadets forward to close the breach. Coming into line as the 34th Massachusetts began their attack, the cadets braced themselves for the onslaught. Fighting with Breckinridges seasoned veterans, the cadets were able to repel the Union thrust. Elsewhere, a thrust by Union cavalry led by Major General Julius Stahel was turned back by Confederate artillery fire. With Sigels attacks faltering, Breckinridge ordered his entire line forward. Surging through the mud with the cadets in the lead, the Confederates assaulted Sigels position, breaking his line and forcing his men from the field. Aftermath The defeat at New Market cost Sigel 96 killed, 520 wounded, and 225 missing. For Breckinridge, losses were around 43 killed, 474 wounded, and 3 missing. During the fighting, ten of the VMI cadets were killed or mortally wounded. Following the battle, Sigel withdrew to Strasburg and effectively left the Valley in Confederate hands. This situation would largely remain until Major General Philip Sheridan captured the Shenandoah for the Union later that year.

Living Fossil Plants - Ginkgo, Metasequoia, Wollemia

Living Fossil Plants - Ginkgo, Metasequoia, Wollemia A living fossil  is a species that is known from fossils looking just the way it looks today. Among animals, the most famous living fossil is probably the  coelacanth. Here are three living fossils from the plant kingdom. Afterward, we will point out why living fossil is no longer a good term to use. Ginkgo, Ginkgo biloba Ginkgoes are a very old line of plants, their earliest representatives being found in rocks of Permian age  some 280 million years old. At times in the geologic past, they have been widespread and abundant, and the dinosaurs surely fed upon them. The fossil species Ginkgo adiantoides, indistinguishable from the modern ginkgo, is found in rocks as old as Early Cretaceous (140 to 100 million years ago), which appears to have been the ginkgos heyday. Fossils of ginkgo species are found throughout the northern hemisphere in rocks dating from Jurassic to Miocene times. They disappear from North America by the Pliocene and vanish from Europe by the Pleistocene. The ginkgo tree is well-known today as a street tree and ornamental tree, but for centuries it appears to have been extinct in the wild. Only cultivated trees survived, in Buddhist monasteries in China, until they were planted across Asia starting about a thousand years ago. Ginkgo Photo GalleryGrowing GinkgoesLandscaping with Ginkgoes Dawn Redwood, Metasequoia glyptostroboides The dawn redwood is a conifer that sheds its leaves every year, unlike its cousins the coast redwood and giant sequoia. Fossils of closely related species date from late in the Cretaceous  and occur all over the northern hemisphere. Their most famous locality is probably on Axel Heiberg Island in the Canadian Arctic, where stumps and leaves of Metasequoia sit still unmineralized from the warm Eocene Epoch some 45 million years ago. The fossil species Metasequoia glyptostroboides was first described in 1941. Its fossils were known before that, but they were confused with those of the true redwood genus Sequoia and the swamp cypress genus Taxodium for more than a century. M. glyptostroboides was thought to be long extinct. The latest fossils, from Japan, dated from the early Pleistocene (2 million years ago). But a living specimen in China was found a few years later, and now this critically endangered species is thriving in the horticultural trade. Only about 5000 wild trees remain. Recently, Chinese researchers described a single isolated specimen in Hunan province whose leaf cuticle differs from all other dawn redwoods and exactly resembles the fossil species. They suggest that this tree is truly the living fossil and that the other dawn redwoods have evolved from it by mutation. The science, along with much human detail, is presented by Qin Leng in a recent issue of Arnoldia. Qin also reports vigorous conservation efforts in Chinas Metasequoia Valley. Wollemi Pine, Wollemia nobilis The ancient conifers of the southern hemisphere are in the araucaria plant family, named for the Arauco region of Chile where the monkey-puzzle tree (Araucaria araucana) lives. It has 41 species today (including the Norfolk Island pine, kauri pine and bunya-bunya), all of them scattered among the continental fragments of Gondwana: South America, Australia, New Guinea, New Zealand and New Caledonia. Ancient araucarians forested the globe in Jurassic times. In late 1994, a ranger in Australias Wollemi National Park in the Blue Hills found a strange tree in a small, remote canyon. It was found to match fossil leaves going back 120 million years in Australia. Its pollen grains were an exact match to the fossil pollen species ​Dilwynites, found in Antarctica, Australia, and New Zealand in rocks as old as Jurassic. The Wollemi pine is known in three small groves, and all specimens today are as genetically alike as twins. Hard-core gardeners and plant fanciers are very interested in the Wollemi pine, not just for its rarity but because it has beautiful foliage. Look for it at your local progressive arboretum. Why Living Fossil Is a Poor Term The name living fossil is unfortunate in some ways. The dawn redwood and Wollemi pine present the best case for the term: recent fossils that appear identical, not just similar, to a living representative. And the survivors were so few that we may not have enough genetic information to explore their evolutionary history in depth. But most living fossils dont match that story. The plant group of cycads is an example that used to be in the textbooks (and may still be). The typical cycad in yards and gardens is the sago palm, and it had supposedly been unchanged since Paleozoic time. But today there are about 300 species of cycad, and genetic studies show that most are only a few million years old. Besides genetic evidence, most living fossil species differ in small details from todays species: shell ornamentation, numbers of teeth, configuration of bones and joints. Although the line of organisms had a stable body plan that succeeded in a certain habitat and lifeway, its evolution never stopped. The idea that the species became evolutionarily stuck is the main thing wrong about the notion of living fossils. There is a similar term used by paleontologists for fossil types that disappear from the rock record, sometimes for millions of years, and then appear again: Lazarus taxa, named for the man that Jesus raised from the dead. A Lazarus taxon is not literally the same species, found in rocks millions of years apart. Taxon refers to any level of taxonomy, from the species through the genus and family up to the kingdom. The typical Lazarus taxon is a genus- a group of species- so that matches what we now understand about living fossils.

Zero Tolerance Policy in the K-12 United States Education System Research Paper

Zero Tolerance Policy in the K-12 United States Education System - Research Paper Example This research will begin with the statement that the Gun Free Schools Act (GFSA) enacted in 1994, inter alia, empowers the educational institutions â€Å"to expel from school for a period of not less than one year a student who is determined to have brought a weapon to a school†.   In view of the changing environment in the social spectrum and the unprecedented technological developments not even predicted by sociologist and futurist, Alvin Toffler in his Future Shock, it is attempted to seek an answer to the question: Is there is a need to revisit such provisions of this act and the other related acts such as Goals 2000: Educate America Act on account of the inhibiting factors and ominous consequences to the students and their families involved in enforcement of these laws in relation to zero tolerance policy.   At the instance of Pennsylvania Parent Teachers Association (PTA), a proposal in relation to zero tolerance policy is being submitted to the Senator Arlen Specter .   We expect that his compassion for the students makes him as an advocate in addressing the needs of students.   His clout as a senior Senator with wide experience and respectability would be helpful in carrying out the necessary amendments to the act(s). This paper has been prepared after careful study and analysis of the various alternatives, factors involved and the existing policy environment with the recommendations in this respect.

Immigration in Britain Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2500 words

Immigration in Britain - Essay Example The emergence of nation-states made immigration a political issue: by definition it is the homeland of a nation defined by shared ethnicity and/or culture." (Wikipedia: Immigration). According to the source data presented in the graphics above there is currently a total of 191 million immigrants worldwide. The statistics also unveil that the last 50 years has seen an almost doubling of immigration entailing the movements of 115 million immigrants into developed countries. Official statistics indicate that more than two million foreign nationals have moved to Britain in recent years and nine in 10 of them came from outside Europe. According to the sources, a net 2.3 million immigrants arrived between 1991 and 2006, the majority from Africa and Asia. The other important dimension presented on the facts is that hundreds of thousands of short-term immigrants are not included in official statistics whilst the sources indicate that the counting system is grossly unreliable that it is not feasibly possible to know the true immigrants population of Britain. Through the surge of globalization, various factors trigger the movement of people from their native countries to other countries. The factors can be categorized into social, economic and political. The nineteenth century has particularly experienced phenomenal proportions of immigrations triggered largely by civil and economic strife and unrest in various countries especially in the third world or developing countries categories. Researches that have conducted to assess the impact immigration on the economic aspects of matters have unveiled certain notables in the nature and patterns of immigration in UK for the past 50 years. The movement of foreign nationals into the UK has resulted in the significant increase of the labour supply. This has been so notably in low job realms which are naturally not preferred by British natives. Immigration in the UK has also impacted significantly on Aggregate Demand in cases where there have been more people spending and therefore increasing demand for labour. This has also brought significant dynamics in the wages systems. Immigration into The UK has led to the spiraling for unemployment especially for the foreign nationals owing to largely to various reasons chief of which include the lack of critical skills and proficiency in the English language. This has often led to a diminishing range of available job opportunities resultantly culminating in structural unemployment. This setback has also been aggravated by the realities of racial discrimination in some instances. On positive dimensions immigration in the UK economy which has been dogged by a shortage of certain key public sector workers, especially in London, has helped alleviate labour gaps. This has been in the shape of immigrants getting trained to be nurses, doctors or teachers they can help fill labour market shortages. Also owing to the fact that immigrant is largely of working age, immigrants in the UK have helped overcome the demographic problems inherent in ageing population. As such this has lowered income tax levels whilst the other

Conducting Quantitative Cost And Schedule Risk Analysis Construction Essay

Conducting Quantitative Cost And Schedule Risk Analysis Construction Essay Every single project, in fact, will face unexpected conditions during execution phase. These conditions have different impacts, improving or reducing project performance. If those conditions, especially the bad ones risks, are not well identified up front, they may potentially destroy the overall project execution. Project Risk Management is a world class process in identifying, assessing and developing plans to reduce or eliminate the risk impacts. In term of cost and schedule, this process prevents significant cost overrun and schedule slip by applying adequate contingency. One of Project Risk Management methodologies is Quantitative Risk Analysis. This study covers the combination of two AACE International Recommended Practices, Range Estimating and Expected Value, in conducting Quantitative Risk Analysis to determine the adequate contingency needed using simple Microsoft Excel ® spreadsheet. Range Estimating method is used to identify and examine project uncertainties on each project schedule task durations and project cost components and Expected Value for project specific risks. Utilizing Monte Carlo simulation, the combination resulted on the S-Curve which was more skewed to the right. It reduces the project likelihood to achieve objectives with baseline cost and schedule is reduced and more contingency is needed to cover identified risks and uncertainties. The combination of both methods is very useful for comprehensive quantitative risk analysis. It will help project team to specify, identify, examine and encompass overall risks and uncertainties aspects which potentially impact to project outcomes and support management decision in determining adequate contingency requirement. Introduction Successful project management requires strong leadership and organizational capability, good decision making process, achievable planning, effective communication, coordination and effective project control and monitoring of project execution. Effective combination of those requirements will guide the entire project team to carry out outstanding performance in achieving project objectives. As Project Management definition above; cost, schedule, quality and safety are project key performance indicators or targets which determine successful project execution or not. During project execution phase, naturally, there are a lot of situations and conditions which were not predicted and potentially impact to project performances especially for cost and schedule. Those situations and conditions are defined as project risks and uncertainties. In this case, project uncertainties are not only impact to worse outcome but potentially to better project outcome. Realizing those potential risks and uncertainties, a project team requires a good project planning with comprehensive process to manage those risks and uncertainties. This process is defined as Project Risk Management. In the following sections through the conclusion, the Author will discuss his perspective about: General project risk management How to prepare, develop and perform quantitative cost and schedule risk analysis How to combine Range Estimating and Expected Value method in quantitative cost and schedule risk analysis How to determine appropriate contingency level based on quantitative cost and schedule risk analysis result Project Risk Management Project risk management should have a good planning in order to make alignment among project team members and project stakeholders. Project risk management plan includes work flow and processes, risk factor screening matrix, risk owner determination including role and responsibly, monitoring and reporting. Usually each Corporation Company has their own standard project risk management process. This standard will be guidance, fit for purpose, for each project for developing specific risk management plan. Risk Assessment In this step, project team will identify all possible risks and uncertainties that may impact the project execution. A risk management workshop is usually held to review and capture potential project risks and uncertainties by brainstorming session. Depend on project size and complexity, beside project team members, other support teams, such as Supply Change Management, Government and Public Relation, Law, etc; experienced project teams which have similar project scope and experts are encouraged to participate in this workshop to gain values, alignment and perspectives. Risk Analysis After all possible project risks and uncertainties were identified, and then project team analyzes and assesses each risk qualitatively or quantitatively. For qualitative approach, project team will assign potential impact and likelihood of occurrence of each respected risk using risk factor screening matrix, shown on Figure 2, agreed in risk management plan. The combination between risk impact and likelihood will determine risk criticality category or level. One of quantitative approach is conducting cost and schedule risk analysis by developing cost and schedule model, assessing and determining variability (uncertainties range) of each point estimate, define project specific risk events and then using Monte Carlo simulation to provide cumulative probabilistic output (more commonly known as S-Curve), shown on Figure 3. Monte Carlo simulation helps project team and stakeholders understand the range uncertainties and likelihood of achieving the planned outcomes. This simulation also can provide sensitivity (tornado) diagram which represent project risk drivers (priority) of respected point estimate. Risk Mitigation Since not all risks have high (critical) level impact to project outcome, project team need to prioritize all analyzed risks. Then project team need to develop risk action plan including specific mitigation plan, associated timing and resources and assign risk owner to all prioritized high level impact risks. Then this process continues to action plan implementation. From Process Map for Risk Management, showed on Figure 1, we can see that project risk management is not only event based process but it is a continuous process that will improve project understanding on risks and uncertainties that potentially impact to project outcome. Project risk management is most effective if it is monitored, controlled and adjusted if required. Quantitative Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis In project world, risks and uncertainties are translated as contingency. Contingency refers primarily to the amount of quantity of funds, time or other financial resources that is required to be allocated at and above the previously designated cost and schedule estimate amount to reduce the risk of overruns to an acceptable level for the financially. As mentioned above, quantitative cost and schedule risk analysis utilizes Monte Carlo simulation. Monte Carlo is one of technique and tool for risks and uncertainties analysis. This tool is used for generating probabilities through random sampling or iteration of all possible value of uncertainties and risks. The simulation result accuracy depends on number of iterations. The accuracy can be illustrated as follows: This method can support project team in quantifying project risks and uncertainties and determining appropriate contingency level. Using mathematical techniques and models, quantitative risk analysis numerically comes up with cumulative probabilistic result. This simulation result communicates potential risks and allows the management to select appropriate risk (contingency) level based on company approach. Without this valuable information, projects invested cost and schedule could be in corrected and causing underestimate which possibly came up with project overruns. This condition can possibly cause the project to require funding amendment to achieve project outcomes. There are several steps in conducting quantitative cost and schedule risk analysis: Developing cost and schedule models. Using Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) and Cost Breakdown Structure (CBS) as starting point are best practices in analysis model development. The cost and schedule models should represent all project scopes. Determine associated risks and uncertainties variables of each cost or schedule elements From developed models, we determine associated risks and uncertainties on each cost and schedules elements. AACE International has published two Recommended Practices (RP) in conducting risk analysis and contingency determination. They are using range estimating RP 41R-08 and expected value RP 44R-08. Assign Probability Distribution Function for each cost or schedule elements Since we will use Monte Carlo simulation, we need to define possible values from risks and uncertainties variables determined from previous step. In this case, we have to define probability distribution of each cost and schedule elements. Triangular distribution is the most common probability distribution type used for cost and schedule variables. Assign correlation factor between related or depended cost or schedule elements Since there are possibilities of dependency of some cost or schedule elements, project team need to assign correlation factor between two or more elements. Correlation factor is defined from -1.0 to +1.0, where 0 indicates no correlation. Without appropriate data, correlation factor is quite difficult to determine. Analyze the models using Monte Carlo simulation Monte Carlo simulation will generate cumulative probabilistic curve (S-Curve) which shows alternative cost or schedule probabilities based on risks and uncertainties variables inputted. Besides producing this curve, Monte Carlo also able to communicate cost and schedule elements which drive uncertain result. This information is provided by Tornado Diagram, shown on Figure 4. Analyze simulation result and generate report The S-Curve communicates how likely our current (base) cost and schedule estimates are to over-run or under-run and how much contingency is needed to justify level of confidence of project to finish on time and on budget. Each company has own target and willingness to accept risks. As Tornado Diagram provides prioritized risk drivers information, project team need to develop mitigation plan to reduce amount of risks and uncertainties impact and likelihood of occurrence of respected risk drivers. As mentioned previously, quantitative cost and schedule risk analysis should be conducted periodically. In line with mitigation plan progress, we expect that several risks and uncertainties impacts already have been reduced. By having continuous risk analysis and mitigation plan, it will maximize a projects chance to be delivered on time, on budget and safely. Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis for Appropriate Contingency Determination using Range Estimating and Expected Value Methods As described above, after we developed cost and schedule models, the next step is determining associated uncertainties and risks that as per experiences and data may influence and impact to project execution. AACE International recommends two methodologies in determining associated risks and uncertainties; they are Range Estimating and Expected Value. In Range Estimating method, the project team and other workshop participants will determine the ranges of each cost and schedule elements based on their knowledge, experiences of similar projects and any available data and/or benchmarking information. Utilizing triangular probability distribution function, the determined range will be iterated in Monte Carlo simulation to generate S-Curve. The Expected Value method is used to describe specific project risks that may impact project in specific condition or period of time. The Expected Value in its most basic form can be expressed as follows: If triangular probability distribution function is used for Range Estimating, Expected Value uses Bernoulli probability distribution function for representing the probability of risk occurring of project specific risk. In this section, the Author will illustrate the combination of both AACE International Recommended Practices by using simplified real project cost and schedule estimate data for developing the model, ranges and risk drivers with modified values and also Microsoft Excel with Crystal Ball as Monte Carlo simulation software. 4.1. Quantitative Schedule Risk Analysis with Range Estimating and Expected Value Method The first step in performing quantitative schedule risk analysis is developing schedule model. The best approach in developing this model is by utilizing the Critical Path Method (CPM) schedule. By selecting critical path and near critical path tasks, we will be able to develop the model. The important thing in developing the schedule model, it should represent the entire project scopes. Developing a schedule model network diagram can help all workshop participants in understanding the model and guide the discussion in determining the uncertainties range and project specific risk of each schedule task. Since we use Microsoft Excel spreadsheet in this risk analysis, manual calculations and formulas are used to describe relationship between tasks and determine start and finish date of each task. To prevent logic change during risk analysis discussion, the schedule model should be understood and agreed ahead by all parties who involve in risk analysis. Once schedule model is developed, the next step is determining the uncertainties range of each schedule task. In AACEI RP 41R-08, this method is called as Range Estimating. The risk workshop participants will discuss and determine appropriate uncertainties range, shown in Table 2 with yellow highlights, of each task based on their experiences, judgment and available data. Remember to capture all related discussion during determining the range as workshop evidences and valuable information in the future. As described above, the next step, we have to determine Probability Distribution Function (PDF) for all task ranges and specific risks. In this project, we use triangular PDF for all task ranges, as shown in Figure 6. Once all schedule task ranges are done, then we need to check and determine additional project specific risks which potentially impact to specific project schedule task. In this project example, there are two project specific risks identified and all of them relate with procurement process. In Indonesia, all Oil and Gas Companies have to comply with Indonesian Executive Agency for Upstream Oil and Gas Industry (BPMIGAS) regulation in procurement process (PTK-007). Both project specific risks are retender on material (equipment) and contract procurement processes. Based on data from Supply Change Management (SCM) team, retender on material procurement will add 30 days with likelihood of occurrence is 15% and retender on EPCI contract procurement will add 60 days with likelihood of occurrence is 20%. We use Yes-No PDF for both specific risks represent likelihood of occurrence, as shown in Figure 7. Then material procurement retender risk is applied and tied-in to Major Equipment Bulk Procurement Process ID 4 and also EPCI contract procurement retender risk to EPCI Contract Procurement Process ID 6, as shown in Table 3 the same PDF is applied for Retender Material. After assigned correlation factors, we run the Monte Carlo simulation and come up with S-Curve as shown in Figure 8. From this figure, we can see the likelihood of achieving original project completion date (baseline schedule) is only around 25% of confidence level. If we compare this simulation result with simulation result without project specific risks, as shown in Figure 9, we can see there is approximately 14 days difference on P50 confidence level. It means that project specific risks impact to overall project duration, even though in this project example, the contribution is not significant. It is only 2% of total baseline duration. Using the S-Curve, the decision makers will be able to determine the contingency needed to achieve an expected confidence level. Each company typically has an expectation setting on level of acceptable risk tolerance or confidence level. The contingency level is determined by the difference between the acceptable confidence level and project baseline. If the Mean, represent as Expected Value, is selected as the acceptable level then the project schedule contingency is 72 days. Another advantage in Monte Carlo simulation is identification of high priority risks and uncertainties which drive uncertain simulation result. This information can be illustrated by Tornado Diagram, as shown in Figure 10. In this project example, uncertainties range of schedule tasks drive the project finish date. Since project specific risks have no significant impact to finish date, both risks are not considered as high priority project risk drivers. From Tornado Chart above, project team need to develop mitigation plan to reduce amount of uncertainties impact of respected risk drivers. 4.2. Quantitative Cost Risk Analysis with Range Estimating and Expected Value Method Similar like schedule risk analysis, the cost model can be developed from high level Cost Breakdown Structure. Each cost element is formed by the combination of unit amount (scope) and unit rate. The next step, we will determine uncertainties range of each cost element scope and rate and the result is as shown in Table 4. The triangular PDF is also applied to all cost elements. As we know that schedule slip or delay will contribute in increasing the cost. Several cost elements may depend on specific schedule tasks duration. It means that each cost element risks depends not only its components (scope and rate) but also from on respected duration uncertainties. The cost components uncertainties already determined by range estimating method above. Since specific schedule duration uncertainties potentially impact to specific cost elements, they can be utilized as project specific risks for cost risk analysis. From this project example, there are two schedule task durations are identified and impact to several cost elements as shown in Table 5. Both project specific risks information can be gathered from Schedule Risk Analysis simulation result. The Total Site Installation Duration is defined as all activity durations from Field Fabrication and Assembly until Commissioning Start Up. As Monte Carlo simulation, this project specific risk comes up with S-Curve as shown in Figure 11. From S-Curve above, we can calculate the difference between baseline duration and major percentiles, as shown in Table 6 yellow highlighted and use Triangular PDF for simulation later, as shown in Figure 12. The same method is applied for 2nd specific risk by using Figure 8, the total project duration. After assigned correlation factors, we run the Monte Carlo simulation and come up with S-Curve as shown in Figure 13. From this figure, we can see the likelihood of achieving original project completion date (baseline schedule) is only around 15% of confidence level. If we compare this simulation result with simulation result without project specific risks, as shown in Figure 14, we can see there is approximately US$ 1.2 million difference on P50 confidence level. It means that schedule duration uncertainties (specific risks) allocate significant impact to total project cost, with additional contingency 8%. From the Tornado Diagram, as shown in Figure 15, we can see that schedule duration uncertainties become the main risk driver of total project cost uncertainties, beside several cost components. This condition is concurred with above statement that schedule slip will contribute in increasing the cost. Conclusion The above simulation results show the implication of the combination between Range Estimating and Expected Value methods in conducting quantitative cost and schedule risk analysis. The combination of both methods will help project team to specify, identify, examine and encompass overall risks and uncertainties aspects which potentially impact to project outcomes and support management decision in determining adequate contingency requirement. The quality of quantitative risk analysis result depends on workshop participants knowledge, experiences of similar projects, judgments and any available data and/or benchmarking information. Poor quality analysis leads to inaccurate decision making. Realizing this condition, the quantitative risk analysis should be conducted periodically to ensure the validity of all risks information and effectiveness of mitigation plan. Effective Risk Management plan will improve the likelihood the project in achieving its goals.